IP Review Winter 2018/19

9 8 Market opportunity and technological hurdles The development of a first functional battery cell in 1836 is attributed to a British chemist named John Frederic Daniell. Despite almost 200 years of improvements, the basic operating principles remain the same and require direct conversion of chemical energy into electrical energy by facilitating the flow of charge carriers between positively and negatively charged terminals. Modern battery cells comprise a cathode (positive electrode), an anode (negative electrode), a separator, and electrolyte. Performance of a specific battery cell depends heavily upon the chemical composition of its constituents. Although various configurations and chemistries are known, most experts are unanimous that lithium-ion batteries will dominate the market in the foreseeable future. Many believe, however, that this technology has reached its peak performance, and alternative solutions, such as solid-state batteries or hybrid batteries, must be investigated. Identifying which technology would work best in mass-produced electric vehicles is currently the biggest challenge facing the automotive sector. For the time being there is no stand-out technology in the electric vehicle market, which confirms that there is still a void to be filled by new solutions. There is a huge potential financial reward for those who manage to develop the market-leading technology. The global electric vehicle market is estimated to reach $550bn by the year 2025, a 5-fold growth from the 2017 figures. The potential market opportunity in the UK is estimated at £5bn in 2025, accounting for approximately 10% of the European market. Improvements in technology may also significantly affect prices of electric vehicles. Car sales data suggest that in 2017 the average price for an electric vehicle was 42% higher than the price of an equivalent internal combustion car. Forecasts by Bloomberg L.P. suggest a potential threefold reduction in battery production costs by 2030, which will have a knock-on effect on vehicle prices. By the year 2025, an average electric vehicle will cost the same amount as an internal combustion car of a similar class. Resolving these technical challenges may also have spillover benefits for other emerging industries, such as grid energy storage or battery recycling. Worldwide patenting activity In the last 20 years, the overall number of granted patents in the field of vehicle electrification has soared by 800%. This impressive rate of technological progress was seemingly unaffected by the major economic downturns of 1999 and 2007. These trends in patent filings were driven mainly by corporate players based in USA, Japan, China, Germany and South Korea. The industry-wide trends can be easily spotted by investigating the worldwide patenting landscape. For instance, the number of priority applications relating to solid-state batteries fluctuated at around 600 applications annually between 2001 and 2007, followed by strong growth for the next 10 years, with the number of applications almost doubling over this period. On the other hand, despite a two- fold increase in priority applications over that decade, applications relating to liquid electrolytes do not seem to be of the same interest to the industry, suggesting this technology is not seen to be as commercially important. These trends become all the more apparent when investigating the activities of the biggest patent filers. Recent patent publications suggest that Toyota has been concentrating heavily on the development of solid state electrolytes for rechargeable lithium- ion batteries. For instance, they have improved conductive characteristics of cathodes by introducing into them multiple pores impregnated with a solid- state electrolyte. They have also worked on increasing the consistency between rated and actual capacity of solid-state batteries. The solution developed by Toyota’s inventors helped to increase this ratio to an impressive 95%. Toyota has also developed and patented a system for wireless car battery charging, whose impact on the industry is confirmed by the number of times this system has been cited in other patent literature. Innovations of another automotive giant, Hyundai, are often directed at integration of battery packs with vehicles, hence many patent filings showing cooling circuits, and packaging of cells in heat- efficient casings capable of withstanding the expansion of the battery during cyclic charging and discharging. It is worth noting that Hyundai is also heavily engaged in the development of alternative propulsionmethods, such as hydrogen powered vehicles. The carmaker holds a sizable portfolio of applications relating to storage tanks for solid hydrogen, and electrical systems to monitor the efficiency of energy conversion and the health of hydrogen cells. Who will come out on top in the race to develop electric cars? Climate change, recent diesel emissions scandals and poor air quality in large cities are just a few of the factors which are driving a surge in demand for environmentally friendly vehicles. Although the market of ultra-low emission vehicles is still in its infancy, there is a growing sentiment that it will be dominated by electric vehicles. To help UK businesses brace for these radical changes, the Government has proposed a range of measures to propel the UK into becoming a world leader in battery technology and innovation. Patents Top 5 worldwide filers in the automotive sector (1997-2018) Worldwide Priority Filings Priority fili gs 3251 1444 1264 1069 1044 Toyota Hyundai Honda Daimler Ford 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Number of priority filings for solid state batteries vs. liquid electrolyte batteries 1999 2004 2009 2014 Solid state batteries Liquid electrolyte batteries IP review winter 2018/19